Statistical Inference as Severe Testing:How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars

图书简介

Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can’t scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

Preface; Excursion 1. How to Tell What’s True about Statistical Inference: Tour I. Beyond probabilism and performance; Tour II. Error probing tools vs. logics of evidence; Excursion 2. Taboos of Induction and Falsification: Tour I. Induction and confirmation; Tour II. Falsification, pseudoscience, induction; Excursion 3. Statistical Tests and Scientific Inference: Tour I. Ingenious and severe tests; Tour II. It’s the methods, stupid; Tour III. Capability and severity: deeper concepts; Excursion 4. Objectivity and Auditing: Tour I. The myth of ’the myth of objectivity’; Tour II. Rejection fallacies: whose exaggerating what?; Tour III. Auditing: biasing selection effects and randomization; Tour IV. More auditing: objectivity and model checking; Excursion 5. Power and Severity: Tour I. Power: pre-data and post-data; Tour II. How not to corrupt power; Tour III. Deconstructing the N-P vs. Fisher debates; Excursion 6. (Probabilist) Foundations Lost, (Probative) Foundations Found: Tour I. What ever happened to Bayesian foundations?; Tour II. Pragmatic and error statistical Bayesians; Souvenir (Z) farewell; References; Index.

Trade Policy 买家须知

关于产品：
● 正版保障：本网站隶属于中国国际图书贸易集团公司，确保所有图书都是100%正版。
● 环保纸张：进口图书大多使用的都是环保轻型张，颜色偏黄，重量比较轻。
● 毛边版：即书翻页的地方，故意做成了参差不齐的样子，一般为精装版，更具收藏价值。
关于退换货：
由于预订产品的特殊性，采购订单正式发订后，买方不得无故取消全部或部分产品的订购。
由于进口图书的特殊性，发生以下情况的，请直接拒收货物，由快递返回：
● 外包装破损/发错货/少发货/图书外观破损/图书配件不全（例如：光盘等）
并请在工作日通过电话400-008-1110联系我们。
签收后，如发生以下情况，请在签收后的5个工作日内联系客服办理退换货：
● 缺页/错页/错印/脱线
关于发货时间：
一般情况下：
●【现货】下单后48小时内由北京（库房）发出快递。
●【预订】【预售】下单后国外发货，到货时间预计5-8周左右，店铺默认中通快递，如需顺丰快递邮费到付。
● 需要开具发票的客户，发货时间可能在上述基础上再延后1-2个工作日（紧急发票需求，请联系010-68433105/3213）；
● 如遇其他特殊原因，对发货时间有影响的，我们会第一时间在网站公告，敬请留意。
关于到货时间：
由于进口图书入境入库后，都是委托第三方快递发货，所以我们只能保证在规定时间内发出，但无法为您保证确切的到货时间。
● 主要城市一般2-4天
● 偏远地区一般4-7天
关于接听咨询电话的时间：
010-68433105/3213正常接听咨询电话的时间为：周一至周五上午8：30～下午5：00，周六、日及法定节假日休息，将无法接听来电，敬请谅解。
其它时间您也可以通过邮件联系我们：customer@readgo.cn,工作日会优先处理。
关于快递：
● 已付款订单：主要由中通、宅急送负责派送，订单进度查询请拨打010-68433105/3213。

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing:How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars 统计推断的严峻考验：如何超越统计学战争 概率论

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing:How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars

统计推断的严峻考验：如何超越统计学战争
概率论